Transfix Take: Weekly Market Update (May 29, 2024)

Post-MDW National Rates Still Peak

Welcome to the week of April 18th edition of the Transfix Take! Gear up for the latest updates and trends in the trucking industry. In this issue, we're revving up with industry news, sprinting through regional breakdown highlights, and putting the spotlight on what's on the logistics horizon.

Industry Insights: Unpacking the Road Ahead

In this week's edition of Transfix Take, we bring you the latest updates and insights from the world of freight. Co-hosts Justin Maze and Jenni Ruiz will return next week with an all new episode of the Transfix Take but until then, here are some notable highlights and updates:

National Rate Continues to Heighten: Continuing the trend of rate increases, Memorial Day Weekend made room for a $1.69 rate per mile, linehaul only nationwide. This is the highest level the RPM has been since February but with two volatility-inducing events behind us, we expect rates to return to more familiar seasonal patterns. Tender rejections surpassed DOT Blitz Week levels, spiking to nearly 4.5%–a number we haven’t experienced since February, as well, but is expected to trail back down to that 2.5% mark in the next few days.

Source: Freightwaves

Source: Freightwaves

Regional Roadmap: Where the Rubber Meets the Road

Below is a regional breakdown of the freight industry, uncovering nuances and trends in various regions across the nation.

Source: Transfix Internal Data

Midwest: This region experienced a 0.46% increase in rates on average with some breakout lanes including Detroit, Cleveland, and Indianapolis carrying the torch. We expect the Midwest to show some easing over the next few days bringing it back to its looser seasonal trend.

Northeast: While the Northeast incurred an average increase, it was the region with the smallest change at +0.26%. Some breakout markets included Elmira, Erie, and Syracuse putting this region at an increase of nearly 2% over the last 14 days but expect this market to cool back to where we saw it at the top of the month. City and local runs saw an increase of 3% in the NE.

Coastal Region: Every single region in and out of the Coastal region saw an increase, bringing the rate average to 1.46%. Local, mid, and long-haul freight were all close to the 3% mark. 

West Coast: The West Coast again saw modest increases in just about every market, coming in at a 0.67% change. Some breakout markets included Albuquerque, Medford, and Pendelton all over 2%. 

South: The South saw a mixed bag over the last 7 days somewhat mirroring the West Coast at a 0.68% increase. Local and short-hauls saw some decreases but breakout markets in this region included Shreveport and Texarkana closer to the 3% mark. 

Southeast: Thanks to the trifecta of heightened seasonality, DOT week, and Memorial Day Weekend, the Southeast took the reigns as the region with the largest increase averaging 1.62%. The last few weeks have shown Florida market darlings, Miami and Lakeland, ballooning by over 10%. It remains to be seen how this market will look driving into June.

The Road Ahead: A Crystal Ball Review + What to Expect When the Road Eases 

As we drive into June, let’s review what Maze predicted at the top of the month compared to where we netted out in this week’s Crystal Ball review:

• National rates may increase by 2.5% to 3%, driven by potential rate decreases in the first 10 days of May followed by an upward trend during and after DOT week. 
  • While we still have a few more days left in the month, we’re currently sitting at a near 7% increase in rates nationwide. Most of the increase can be attributed to Memorial Day Weekend but this percentage could go back down given where we land by week’s end.
• The Southeast was predicted to see the highest increase (around 6%), followed by the West and Coastal regions (around 3%).
  • We accurately predicted that the Southeast would see the highest increase around that 6% mark and were on the mark with the Coastal Region around the 3% mark. However, the West Coast showed some signs of slowing in the middle of the month.
• The Midwest and Northeast were expected to end the month relatively flat after experiencing continued downward pressure, seeing some upward momentum due to volatility during DOT week.
  • Maze’s crystal ball was clear in this prediction as both the Midwest and Northeast plateaued with some slight pressure thanks to DOT week and both regions are on target to continue their downward pressure as we close out the month.

Over the next few days, we expect the South (coast to coast) to remain tight, though not nearly as much as the last few weeks, and over on the East Coast, we expect tightening markets to gradually move north, impacting southern Florida and becoming more pronounced in Georgia and coastal regions.

We'll see you next week with another installment of the Transfix Take - until then, drive safely.

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