How to Navigate the July 4th Freight Rate Spike—And Stay Ahead With Dynamic Pricing
Transfix’s latest 45-day forecast reveals rising rates in key regions and a smarter way for brokers to adapt in real time using the Rates Control Panel.
As the freight market heads into peak summer shipping season, Transfix’s 45-day Dry Van rate forecast is pointing to a few sharp turns, especially around the July 4th holiday. Whether you're moving freight across the Southeast or pricing long hauls out of the Midwest, understanding where rates are headed is only half the battle. The real edge? Knowing how to respond.
Below, our very own Fil Piasevoli (Director of Data Science) breaks down what’s changing in the market, and Ashleigh Hunt (Senior Product Manager) demonstrates how brokers can use tools like the Rates Control Panel to shift pricing strategies dynamically as conditions evolve.
What’s Happening in the Market
Our forecast highlights the following trends across six major U.S. regions:
West: Rates are forecast to rise steadily through mid-July, peaking around 3% above current levels.
Southeast: Expect a sharp rate drop after the July 4th holiday, especially on long-haul lanes (3+ days in transit).
Midwest & Northeast: Anticipate gradual rate increases through July and into early Q1, aligning with seasonal demand peaks.
South: Strong early July rates will likely soften in the latter half of the month.
Coastal: Largely stable rates, with only brief tightness around the July 4th window.
Want to get even more specific? Our forecast also breaks down changes by haul length, so you can see how same-day city runs, 1–2 day hauls, and long-haul moves will be affected differently.
What You Can Do About It
This is where strategy meets execution. Using the Rates Control Panel, brokers can set and adjust pricing logic to align with real-time market changes, automatically applied across Transfix’s Spot Rates Tool and Spot Quote API.
Here are two examples based on Fil Piasevoli’s (Director of Data Science) forecast:
Scenario 1: High July 4th Rates in the Southeast
To protect margins during the expected rate spike, configure a conservative cost strategy.
Settings:
Reason: High July 4th Rates
Pickup Dates: July 3rd through July 6th
Region: Southeast
Strategy: Conservative
💡 Example: A load from Tampa, FL to Atlanta, GA on July 4th will now reflect an adjusted, protective rate based on your rule.
Scenario 2: Falling Rates on Southeast Long Hauls (Post-Holiday)
To stay competitive as rates fall, switch to an aggressive cost strategy on long-haul lanes.
Settings:
Reason: Falling Rates for SE Long Haul
Pickup Dates: July 7th through July 11th
Region + Length: Southeast + Long Haul
Strategy: Aggressive
💡 Example: A load from Tampa, FL to Dallas, TX on July 8th will reflect a lower rate to help you win the business.
Why This Matters
July historically brings increased volatility and elevated tender rejections, particularly around Independence Day. With the Rates Control Panel, brokers can build flexible pricing strategies that automatically reflect current market conditions, rather than relying on guesswork or last-minute adjustments.
Want to see the forecast and control panel in action? Contact us for a custom walkthrough or a look at your most active lanes.
