Transfix Take: Weekly Market Update (May 1, 2024)

April Showers Brings May Volatility

Welcome to the week of April 18th edition of the Transfix Take! Gear up for the latest updates and trends in the trucking industry. In this issue, we're revving up with industry news, sprinting through regional breakdown highlights, and putting the spotlight on what's on the logistics horizon.

Industry Insights: Unpacking the Road Ahead

In this week's edition of Transfix Take, we bring you the latest updates and insights from the world of freight. Co-hosts Justin Maze and Jenni Ruiz share the following highlights and updates:

Slim Declines in Anticipation of a Volatile May: The national average rate per mile saw a slight decline over the last seven days, settling around $1.58 for line haul rates. Tender rejections remained consistent throughout April but fell sharply in the last five days, particularly in the West Coast, dipping below 3%. Over the next seven days, expect continued volatility with potential rate decreases, especially in the Midwest and Northeast, while freight leaving these regions for the Southeast and West Coast will demand higher rates.

Source: Freightwaves

Source: Transfix Internal Data

Source: Freightwaves

Regional Roadmap: Where the Rubber Meets the Road

Below is a regional breakdown of the freight industry, uncovering nuances and trends in various regions across the nation.

Source: Transfix Internal Data

Midwest: Rates across all lanes of haul are decreasing, with a notable 8% decrease over the past 60 days. Freight leaving the Midwest for the Southeast and West Coast will see a favorable market for carriers, while internal Midwest freight remains stagnant.

Northeast: Similar to the Midwest, the Northeast is experiencing downward momentum, especially in freight headed to the Southeast and coastal regions. City and local runs are relatively stagnant, with slight increases in larger markets.

Coastal Region: Freight dynamics in the coastal region are influenced by markets in the Southeast and Northeast. While rates decreased slightly over the past week, there's a battle between supply and demand, keeping rates relatively stable.

West Coast: Rates are on the rise, particularly in markets in California and Arizona, driven by seasonal factors such as increased produce demand. Expect continued tightening in Southern West Coast markets.

Southeast: Rates in the Southeast have seen a 1.32% increase over the past 60 days, with some breakout markets including Austin, El Paso, and Little Rock. Expect consistent rates in the coming days with a slight decline possible in high-volume markets.

South: This region has seen significant gains, with rates increasing by almost 1%. Markets like Miami are heating up, with increases also observed in Lakeland, Jacksonville, and Atlanta.

The Crystal Ball Review: April's Net Out and May's Forecast

April's predictions generally aligned with outcomes, with a slightly greater decrease in the national average rate per mile than anticipated, along with a decline in tender rejections, particularly on the West Coast. Regions like the Midwest and Northeast saw the predicted downward pressure on rates.

Looking ahead to May, expect a month of volatility, especially with the DOT Blitz week. National rates may increase by 2.5% to 3%, driven by potential rate decreases in the first 10 days of May followed by an upward trend during and after DOT week. The Southeast is predicted to see the highest increase (around 6%), followed by the West and coastal regions (around 3%). The Midwest and Northeast are expected to end the month relatively flat after experiencing continued downward pressure but may see some upward momentum due to volatility during DOT week.

Join us next week for an all-new episode of the Transfix Take Podcast where we’ll dive into the 2023 DOT Blitz Week numbers and where we think they’ll turn in the next two weeks. Until then, drive safely.

To make sure you never miss an episode of the Transfix Take podcast, subscribe on Spotify or Apple Music.

DISCLAIMER: All views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the speakers and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of Transfix, Inc., or any parent companies or affiliates or the companies with which the participants are affiliated and may have been previously disseminated by them. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are based upon information considered reliable but neither Transfix Inc. nor its affiliates nor the companies with which the participants are affiliated warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon. As such, all views and opinions are subject to change.