Transfix Take: Weekly Market Update (May 22, 2024)

Transfix Take: Weekly Market Update (May 22, 2024)

Peaks and Valleys with Memorial Day Weekend 

Welcome to the week of May 22nd edition of the Transfix Take! Gear up for the latest updates and trends in the trucking industry. In this issue, we're revving up with industry news, sprinting through regional breakdown highlights, and putting the spotlight on what's on the logistics horizon.

Industry Insights: Unpacking the Road Ahead

In this week's edition of Transfix Take, we bring you the latest updates and insights from the world of freight. Co-hosts Justin Maze and Jenni Ruiz share the following highlights and updates:

A Retro on Blitz Week: Last week, the national average rate per mile saw a notable increase, influenced significantly by DOT Blitz Week. The average national line haul rate per mile rose approximately 6%, moving from $1.58 to $1.68. Despite this, the all-in average rate per mile experienced a smaller increase of 4.5%, as declining diesel prices counterbalanced some of the overall gains. Tender rejections also spiked, starting at 2.9% and exceeding 4% by week's end. However, Justin Maze noted a rapid decrease in rates post-DOT week, suggesting that the surge seen during the Blitz Week is unlikely to continue through the upcoming Memorial Day Weekend.

Screenshot 2024-05-21 at 9.40.23 AM
Source: Freightwaves

Screenshot 2024-05-21 at 9.40.30 AM

Source: Freightwaves

Regional Roadmap: Where the Rubber Meets the Road

Below is a regional breakdown of the freight industry, uncovering nuances and trends in various regions across the nation.

May 22, 2024Source: Transfix Internal Data

Midwest: This region experienced a slight rate increase of just under 2%, with short and mid-haul rates rising nearly 4% and long-haul rates up by 3%. Despite this, Maze predicts a downward trend for the Midwest moving forward, attributing the recent increase primarily to the temporary effects of DOT Blitz Week.

Northeast: The Northeast saw a much-needed boost in rates, reversing a nearly 6% decline over the past two months. Harrisburg, PA, stood out with a 4.5% increase. However, Maze expects the region to soften leading up to Memorial Day Weekend, continuing a trend observed in other markets.

Coastal Region: Rates here rose almost 4%, driven by a 7% increase in mid-haul rates. The Carolinas, with their active shipping of soybeans and peaches, played a significant role in these gains. Maze forecasts continued, albeit moderate, rate increases in this region, particularly for freight heading to the Northeast and Midwest.

West Coast: Contrary to expectations, the West Coast saw only modest increases, with some markets in the Pacific Northwest, like Portland and Seattle, experiencing rate decreases. Maze anticipates increased pressure in Southern California and Arizona, while the Pacific Northwest is expected to loosen further.

South: Every market in the South saw rate increases, with major markets like Dallas and Fort Worth rising by 3-4%. This uptick is partially due to continued high import volumes from Mexico. Although the region remains volatile, Maze expects it to stabilize somewhat as we move past DOT week.

Southeast: This region had the most significant increases, with markets like Lakeland and Jacksonville, FL, seeing jumps of nearly 9% and 8%, respectively. Rates in the Southeast rose by close to 5% overall. While the upward momentum is expected to slow, the Southeast will likely remain a hot market for carriers, continuing to exert upward pressure on rates.

The Road Ahead: Memorial Day Weekend Expectations

Looking ahead to Memorial Day Weekend, Justin Maze projects a softening of the market. He predicts that the national average rate per mile will be lower by next week compared to this past Monday. Despite anticipated tightness from Friday to Tuesday due to the holiday, this is not expected to significantly elevate rates. The usual disruptions associated with Memorial Day, such as facility closures and freight shifts, will create some volatility. However, based on last year's performance, Maze is confident the market will handle these disruptions well, leading to a relatively stable close to the month.

Enjoy your long weekend and we’ll see you next week. Until then, drive safely.

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DISCLAIMER: All views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the speakers and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of Transfix, Inc., or any parent companies or affiliates or the companies with which the participants are affiliated and may have been previously disseminated by them. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are based upon information considered reliable but neither Transfix Inc. nor its affiliates nor the companies with which the participants are affiliated warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon. As such, all views and opinions are subject to change.